| 郑晓奇,陈怡,田川,刘强.碳定价对中国电力行业碳达峰的影响[J].南京邮电大学学报(社会科学版）,2022,(01):73~89 |
| 碳定价对中国电力行业碳达峰的影响 |
| The impact of carbon pricing on CO2 emissions peak of Chinas power industry |
| |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 电力行业 碳达峰 碳定价 碳减排 平准化发电成本 |
| 英文关键词:power industry carbon emission peak carbon pricing carbon mitigation levelized power generation cost |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“基于30·60目标的中国居民家庭能源回弹效应测度与影响机制研究”（72104112）；南京邮电大学校科研基金资助项目“能源回弹效应对工业部门分行业碳排放影响分析及对策研究”（NYY220018） |
|
| 摘要点击次数: |
| 全文下载次数: |
| 中文摘要: |
| 电力行业是中国碳排放量最大的行业，电力行业的低碳转型可以从根本上改变中国能源系统的高碳特征。利用TIMES模型构建了2010—2050年电力行业低碳路径分析模型，设计了不存在碳市场的参考情景和引入碳价格的碳定价情景，研究了两种情景下的电力行业碳排放、装机容量等关键指标的变化情况。在参考情景下，电力行业碳排放量在2027年达峰，峰值约41亿t，随后碳排放量缓慢下降到2050年的37.6亿t。在碳定价情景下，电力行业能够较早地实现碳排放峰值。碳定价过低无法发挥碳价格的减排效果，碳定价过高则给火电厂带来过高的近期成本，建议碳价格在60~125元/t之间运行。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The power industry is the industry with the largest carbon emission in China. The low carbon transformation of the power industry can fundamentally change the high carbon characteristics of Chinas energy system. Based on TIMES model, this paper constructs the low carbon path analysis model of the power industry with the time span from 2010 to 2050, designs the reference scenario without carbon market and the carbon pricing scenario with carbon price, and studies the changes of key indicators such as carbon emission and installed capacity of the power industry under the two scenarios. Under the reference scenario, the carbon emission of power industry would peak in 2027 with peaking value of 4.1 billion tons; and then the carbon emission would slowly decline to 3.76 billion tons in 2050. Under the carbon pricing scenario, the power industry can achieve the peak carbon emission earlier. The carbon mitigation effect will be slight if carbon price is too low (lower than CN￥60/t), and the short term cost of thermal power plants will be too high if carbon price is too high (higher than CN￥125/t), therefore, initial carbon price from CN￥60/t to CN￥125/t is suggested for power industry. |
| 查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 关闭 |